江苏省电信业发展在经济发展中的影响实证研究

A Research of the Effects of Telecommunication Industry on Economic Development

随着电信业对国民经济发展的影响日益突出,定量研究电信业的影响程度,科学、准确地反映电信业的重要性就显得非常必要。本文在前人研究的基础上,首先从理论上分析了电信业对经济发展的作用机制,然后根据1989-2009年的数据,运用协整和Granger因果检验方法,对江苏省电信业与经济发展之间的关系进行了实证分析,结果显示两者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,并且具有双向的因果关系。

As Telecommunication Industry has more and more important effects on economic development,it is necessary to reflect the importance of Telecommunication Industry scientifically and exactly.Based on the previous studies,firstly and theoretically,we analyze the effects of Telecommunication Industry on GDP,and then basing on cointegration and Granger causality test method and the data from 1989 to 2009,we make an empirical study on the relationship between Jiangsu Province＇s Telecommunication Industry and GDP.The results indicate that there is a long-term stable equilibrium,as well as a two-way causality between them.