冬季大棚蔬菜低温冰雪灾害评估与预警研究

Research on Assessment and Forewarning of Snow Disaster on Winter Greenhouse Vegetable

建立客观的冬季大棚蔬菜气象灾害灾损评估模型与气象灾害预警指标,有利于提高防灾减灾科学性,稳定蔬菜市场。试验对1998～2009年武汉城市圈大棚蔬菜风灾损失数据与当地气象条件、2005～2010年冬季大棚蔬菜冻害实际监测资料与大棚内外的气温进行了统计分析。结果表明,大棚风灾灾损率与瞬间极大风速的平方值呈显著的相关关系,大棚蔬菜低温冻害灾损率与低温过程的极端最低气温相关不明显,与低温及其持续时间即累计小时负积温的相关极显著;由此分别建立了竹棚和水泥钢筋大棚风灾、雪灾灾损模型及冻害灾损模型,利用模型对2008年年初的低温冰雪灾害过程进行了检验,结果显示,人为干预越少,即救灾不力,则会使实际的灾害损失越接近理论值;试验通过灾损模型建立了风灾、雪灾、冻害的预警指标,为灾害客观评估、气象防灾减灾奠定了基础。

To improve the capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation and stabilize the vegetable market,the damage evaluation model and warning indexes of meteorological disaster on winter greenhouse vegetable were studied.Based on the observation of air temperature inside and outside plastic film house and monitoring of the frost damage inside plastic film house from 2005 to 2010,the agricultural loss data by wind damage,snow disaster,freezing disaster and meteorological data in Wuhan metropolitan from 1998 to 2009 was analyzed.The results indicated that wind damage rate of plastic film house was significantly correlated to the squared value of maximum instantaneous wind speed.The frost damage rate was not significantly correlated to the extreme minimum temperature but obviously correlated with negative accumulated temperature.According to these relationships,the damage evaluation model of wind damage,snow disaster and freezing disasters of plastic film house were built,then the models and indexes were validated with the causes of the disaster of cold wave,ice and snow storm in 2008.The results showed that with the decrease of human intervention,the damage rate was more close to the actual damage rate;the models and indexed could be directly applied to disaster prevention and mitigation.