中国居民储蓄率的特征事实及其政策含义

Stylized Facts and Policy Implications of China's Household Saving Rate

本文使用资金流量表数据探讨了中国国民储蓄的部门特征以及居民储蓄在其中的地位及其变化。研究显示:1978年以来,中国居民储蓄率总体上呈现出明显的上升趋势,其中在上世纪90年代的增速最快,而在2000年以后一直保持在较高水平;并且中国的居民储蓄率明显高于世界主要发达国家和转型经济国家的同期水平;从国民储蓄的部门特征来看:居民储蓄始终是国民储蓄中最重要且稳定的组成部分,进一步的分析显示,近年来居民部门的收入占比呈现出较大幅度的下降,但居民储蓄倾向却增长明显,从而导致居民部门储蓄率的基本稳定。文章最后提出了相关的政策建议。

The paper examines fund flow statement to discuss the features of China＇s sector savings and the status of household savings. The study reveals that： Since 1978, China＇s household saving rate has showed a clear upward trend on the whole. It increased most rapidly in 1990s, and has remained at high level since 2000; China＇s household saving rate is significantly higher than that of major developed countries and countries in economic transition at the same time; From the perspective of the features of sector savings, household savings are all the time the most important and stable component. Further analysis shows that in recent years, the percentage of household income has drastically declined, while the tendency of household savings has intensified significantly, thus leading to the stability of household saving rate. In the end the article proposes policy suggestions.