人民币国际化与国际收支失衡的“怪圈”:理论与实证

RMB Internationalization and the Strange Loop of BOP Imbalance: Theory and Evidence

随着人民币国际化进程的加快,我国国际收支失衡呈加剧之势,且对人民币国际化形成了一定的阻碍,从而形成了"人民币国际化——国际收支失衡"怪圈。出现这个怪圈的影响因素有多种,包括我国经济内外部失衡严重及外部平衡与人民币国际化战略不协调,出口导向发展战略及利用外资发展战略,人民币国际化程度低也是造成这个怪圈的原因。对此,优化国际收支结构;增强人民币国际可接受性,提高人民币国际化程度;改变出口导向战略和利用外资发展战略,增加进口,并鼓励企业用人民币加大对海外的投资,让企业真正"走出去";通过建立人民币离岸中心,解决人民币回流问题。

With the accelerated process of RMB internationalization, the imbalance of China＇s BOP has intensified, and hindered the process of RMB internationalization, thus forming a strange loop as ＂RMB internationalization - imbalance of BOP＂. There are many factors behind the strange loop, including the imbalance of internal and external facets of China＇s economy, the inconformity of external balance with the strategy of RMB internationalization, the export-oriented development strategy and the use of foreign capital strategy, and also the low level of RMB internationalization. In this regard, we should optimize the structure of international payments; enhance the global accept- ability of RMB to improve the level of RMB internationalization; change the export-oriented development strategy and the use of foreign capital strategy, increase import, and encourage enterprises to use RMB to increase overseas investment, so that enterprises can really ＂Going out＂; address the issue of RMB reflux through establishing RMB offshore center.