财政政策动态效应与价格水平的财政决定理论检验

Test for Dynamic Effect of Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Theory of Price Level

运用一个5变量的结构向量误差修正模型(SVECM),估计财政支出和财政收入外生冲击对GDP、价格水平等相关宏观经济变量的动态效应,同时对价格水平的财政决定理论(FTPL)进行检验。冲击的识别结合相关财政政策决策滞后的假定采用区分持久冲击和暂时冲击的方法。结果表明,正的政府收入冲击将显著减少产出并降低价格水平;正的政府支出冲击对产出的正面影响不如减少财政收入的冲击,其对价格水平的影响也不显著。有理由相信,减税比扩大政府支出更有利于经济增长。另外,在选取的样本期内,价格水平的财政决定理论得不到实证支持。

Adopting a five-variable SVECM model, this paper estimates the dynamic effect of fiscal revenue and spending shocks on such macroeconomic variables as GDP, price level and so on, and test the fiscal theory of price level at the same time. The identifying methods of shocks are distinguishing permanent and transitional shocks with the assumption of fiscal decision lag. The empirical result shows that the positive fiscal revenue shocks significantly reduce the output and price level, whereas the positive effect on the output due to positive shocks of fiscal spending is weaker than that of negative shocks of fiscal revenue, the effect on price of fiscal spending shocks is not significant. Thus, it ＇s reasonable to believe that tax-cutting will do better in the economic growth than expanding the fiscal spending. In addi- tion,in the period of sampling, the results don＇t support the fiscal theory of price level.