中国海洋经济预测研究

Forecast Analysis on Marine Economy of China

海洋经济发展目标的确定是制定国家海洋发展战略、国家级海洋经济发展规划和沿海地方海洋经济发展规划中必须解决的问题之一。因此,海洋经济预测是海洋经济研究领域不可回避的问题之一。对适于进行海洋经济预测的灰色系统模型、趋势外推法、成长曲线法、组合预测法等进行深入探讨,对组合预测结果的最有效性给出可靠的数学证明,并运用所建立的模型对2015年和2020年我国海洋经济和主要海洋产业发展水平进行预测。

To explore the aim of marine economy is the challenge solved urgently, while executing marine development strategy, planning marine economy and coastal areas＇ economy. So forecast analysis on marine economy is the problem that must be faced up when marine economic developmental planning is worked out. The paper deeply explores the models that suited to forecast marine economy, such as grey system of GM（1,1） model, trend analysis models, growth curve approach and combination forecasting approach. On this basis, the paper analyzes the national marine economic development data from 2001 to 2008, and forecasted the development level of marine economy in 2015 and 2020 by using the four models above.