新疆“脆弱生态环境-人口”系统安全预警机制初探

Analysis about Security Pre-Warning System of Frail Ecological & Population in Xinjiang

浅析人口过多与过少阶段新疆"脆弱生态环境-人口"系统安全问题,将人口承载力预警模型与最少人口规模警戒线相结合构建预警机制。具体分两步:首先,在人口增长阶段应用综合评价、生态足迹等方法,建立人口承载力预警模型,目的在于对即将出现或已经出现的超载警情给予预报与评价;其次,根据人口再生产规律,考虑未来人口可能不断减少、影响系统协调发展的问题,此时需参考人口衰减、经济停滞国家的情况,对最少人口规模警戒线进行探索,做到提前预警。最后,对预警机制的实际应用进行了简单的步骤探讨。

This paper uses the number of population as reference point, and studies the security pre-warning system of frail ecological environment and population in Xinjiang under the different moment of excess population and decreasing population. When it studies this security pre-warning system, and combines the carrying capacity model of population with warning line of least population. It is divided into two steps. Firstly, it uses some methods, such as comprehensive evaluation and ecological footprint, under the phase of excess population to build a model about carrying capacity of population. Secondly, it thinks the future when the population is decreasing, and studies the warning line of least population. Lastly, it studies the startup steps of security pre-warning system.