预测与对策:未来中国房地产价格走势分析——以成都市为例

Prediction and Countermeasures: Analysis of China's Real Estate Prices in the Future——A Case from Chengdu

全球金融危机对中国房地产价格影响很大,通过对一系列影响因素的分析,发现这一时期人们的心理预期是所有影响因素中最为敏感的因素,能严重影响中国房地产价格。研究表明,四川省成都市的房地产价格走势与全国房地产价格走势接近,因而能够以该城市的房地产价格作为研究样本,在各种心理预期量化的基础上,预测出未来三年中国房地产价格并提出了相应的政策建议。

This global financial crisis has tremendous influences on China＇ s real estate prices. After careful analysis of a series of influencing factors, we discover that psychological expectation is the most sensitive one during this period, and it will severely impact China＇ s real estate prices. The findings show that real estate price trends of Chengdu City, Sichuan Province is similar to the whole nation, and hence we may use the real estate prices in Chengdu to predict the real estate prices in China in three years and propose policy suggestions after quantifying psychological expectation.