东亚经济复苏前景展望

A Look at the Prospect of the East Asian Economic Recovery

１９９９年以来，遭受亚洲金融危机影响的东亚国家出现经济复苏迹象，如汇率基本稳定，股票市场活跃，出口大幅度增长，外汇储备增加。东亚经济真的复苏了吗？我们认为；东亚经济复苏的进程将受到外部经济环境变化和内部经济调整状况的影响，存在许多不确定性的因素。断言东亚经济已经进入全面复苏的阶段为时尚早，同时，东亚国家再次陷入危机的可能性也不大。稳步推进金融体制改革、加快经济结构调整和发展模式调整步伐，是东亚国家走向全面复苏的基础，也是２１世纪东亚国家创造新一轮经济发展空间的关键。

Since 1999, the East Asian countries affected by the Asian financial crisis have shown signs of economic recovery. But the question remains: Has the East Asian economy really recovered? We believe that the recovery process of East Asian economy will continue to be affected by changes in the external economic environment and the readjustment of internal economic situations. and thus there are a number of undecided factors. It is still too early to make the statement that the East Asian economy has entered into a stage of complete recovery, but in the meantime there is little likelihood of the East Asian countries falling into crisis again. In order to achieve a complete economic recovery and create a space for the new round of economic develop- ment in the 21st century, the East Asian countries must push forward their reform of finance systems step by step and speed up the efforts in readjusting their economic structure and development model.