基于隐含碳排放的碳减排目标研究

Determination of Each Province's Carbon Dioxide Reduction Target Based on Embodied Carbon Dioxide Emissions

中国政府以2005年为基年提出了碳减排指标,确定各省碳减排基数对于明确各省碳减排责任具有重要意义。本文结合"十一五"期间节能指标分解过程中存在的问题,分析了省际贸易中隐含的碳排放对于确定各省碳减排基数的影响,并分别基于生产者负责原则和消费者负责原则计算了"十二五"期间各省碳减排基数。计算结果表明:①将工业部门拆分为23个部门能够更加充分反映省际贸易结构差异对于隐含碳排放计算的影响;②省际贸易中隐含碳排放不仅在各省间有较大差异而且呈现出从中西部地区调往东部地区的整体转移方向;③不同原则下各省碳减排基数计算结果存在较大差异,消费者负责原则更加真实地反映了各地区实际减排责任,避免了部分省份通过省际调进代替本省生产的方式实现碳减排目标。

Measuring each province＇s carbon dioxide emissions is of great significance for the carbon reduction target,announced by Chinese Central Government,with 2005 as the base year.This paper firstly analyzes the existing problems of the energy conservation during the Eleventh Five Year Plan period and then studies the influence of embodied carbon dioxide emissions on the calculation of each province＇s carbon emissions basis.Finally,each province＇s carbon dioxide emissions of the base year are calculated based on two principles： the producer responsibility principle and the consumer responsibility principle.Several crucial conclusions are drawn as follows.First,dividing the industrial sector into 23 sectors adequately reflects the influence of the structural difference in inter-provincial trade on the calculation of the embodied carbon dioxide emissions.Second,the provincial differences of embodied carbon dioxide emissions are obvious.The transfer direction of embodied carbon dioxide emissions is from the central and western regions to the eastern region.Third,there are obvious differences on each province＇s carbon dioxide emissions based on different principles,and the consumer responsibility principle accurately reflects the carbon reduction duty of each province and avoids the phenomenon that some provinces reduce carbon dioxide emissions through inter-provincial trade.