中国建设用地增长对碳排放的影响

Effects of Construction Land Expansion on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China

碳排放是一个受多因素综合影响的过程,受人类活动影响较大的建设用地亦是因素之一。本文通过分析中国1996-2007年建设用地与碳排放的变化,在扩展KAYA恒等式的基础上,基于LMDI分解法,探讨了12年间中国建设用地对碳排放增长的影响,以及不同省份间所存在的差异。结果表明:中国的碳排放以2001年为拐点,呈现稳中有降到快速增长的两阶段变化,空间上则呈现出东高西低格局,环渤海地区为全国碳排放高值地区。LMDI分解结果显示建设用地对碳排放增长存在正向影响,且省际间差异突出,影响较为显著的地区集中在东部、南部沿海地区,新疆和青海也较为明显,其他地区普遍较弱;导致上述差异的主要原因在于各省份经济发展、建设用地的正向作用和能源强度的负向作用之间存在贡献程度的强弱差异及抵消效应。从建设用地控制角度开展碳减排,不同地区将存在效率差异,对于能源强度的抑制作用相对饱和的省份可能有效。

Carbon dioxide emission（CDE） is a complicated procedure influenced by multiple factors.As a type of land use which is affected mostly by human beings,the expansion of construction land is also a major factor of CDE increasing.This study examines how the expansion of construction land affects CDE in China by analyzing the changes of CDE and construction land in China of the period from 1996 to 2007 by the employment of KAYA equation and LMDI decomposition method.Several findings have been reached： First,CDE in China during this period has experienced two stages with significant gradient differences.Second,the expansion of construction land affects the CDE growth positively,and the regional differences are significant.Generally,most provinces in the southeast China have more significant effects and provinces in central regions have less on the opposite.Third,as the result,the efficiency of CDE controlling by the restriction of expansion of construction land varies obviously among different provinces.