中国环境污染损失测算及成因探析

Calculation and Causes of Environmental Pollution Loss in China

环境问题备受关注,环境污染严重影响中国经济的增长质量。本文采用治理成本法测算了1989-2008年中国环境污染造成的经济损失,利用环境污染经济损失数据,采用协整理论研究了中国环境污染损失与经济增长之间的关系。研究表明,我国经济总量与环境污染之间存在长期均衡关系,经济增长是造成环境污染的基础性原因,并且环境污染状况随经济增长仍有扩大的趋势,至今尚未出现环境库兹涅茨曲线拐点的迹象。然后,本文从产业结构、能源结构和效率角度揭示了环境污染的结构性成因。研究认为,高污染行业在整个国民经济中比重过大是造成环境污染的产业结构方面的成因;以煤炭为主的能源消费和高耗能产品增长过快是造成环境污染的能源结构成因;能源效率低下是造成环境污染的技术性成因;资源能源价格长期偏低和法律法规滞后是造成环境污染的制度性缺陷。最后,针对问题提出,只有切实转变经济增长方式,突出技术创新、健全市场机制、完善环境法规才是解决环境污染问题的根本出路。

In China,environmental problems are seriously concerned today,and the pollution has substantially impacted the quality of economic growth of China.The paper,adopting pollution-governing cost methodology,calculates the economic loss resulted from the environmental pollution in China during 1989 and 2008,and then,on the basis of the data it obtains.By applying the theory of cointegration,the paper probes into the relationships between economic loss caused by pollution and economic growth,finding that there is a rather long-term equilibrium between the economic aggregate and environmental pollution.Economic growth is a fundamental cause of environmental pollution,and the latter is still in an expanding tendency under the pressure of the former,having not yet appeared sign of knee point of Environmental Kuznets Curve.Following the analysis,the paper also reveals the structural causes of environmental pollution in China from perspectives of industrial structure,energy structure and efficiency,drawing a conclusion that the too high ratio of high polluting industries in the national economy is the cause of environmental pollution in China in term of industrial structare.Energy consumption which relies too much on coal and the sharp increase of high energy products consumptions play the roles of resource structure cause,while the inefficiency of energy utilization acts as the structural cause.There are also institutional defects that for a long period of time,resources and energy have been kept at a low price;meanwhile,laws and regulations lag.Thus,it＇s suggested that,only by transforming the mode of economic growth,underlining the technical innovation,perfecting the market system and completing environmental legislation,can it be the ultimate solution of the environmental pollution.