中国城市化发展阶段与CO_2排放的关系研究

Study on the Relationship Between Urbanization and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China

目前节能减排已经成为中国"十二五"规划面临的主要任务之一,相关部门在进行决策时不能不考虑城市发展水平与CO2排放的关系。通过协整理论及修正误差模型分析结果表明,由于中国经历着经济转轨和社会转型,虽然1949-2007年城市化与CO2排放并不存在长期均衡关系,但改革开放前后城市化和CO2排放量都呈现出长期稳定的比例关系,即CO2排放随着城市化水平的提高而不断提高,且改革开放前后城市化水平对CO2排放影响存在差异。另外,尽管从短期来看,CO2排放不受当年城市化变动的影响,但从长期来看,不论改革开放前还是改革开放以后,城市化与CO2排放之间具有长期的稳定关系。城市化对CO2排放的影响存在一定的滞后性。因此,相关政府部门在进行决算时不能脱离城市化发展阶段,即要考虑短期影响,更要在战略高度进行长期规划,可通过把握城市化的进程来控制CO2排放增长的速度。

Energy conservation and emissions reduction has become one of the main tasks in carrying out the Twelfth Five Year Plan currently,The relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions has to be concerned when the government designs and makes the relative policies.We find out that there is no long-run equilibrium relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions during 1949-2007 based on the analysis using the co-integration theory and Error-correction Model,since China has taken profound changes in both society and economy.However,there are long-run and stable equilibrium relationships between them around the years of the reform and opening-up.i.e.,the amount of carbon dioxide emissions has been raised consistently with the increase of the level of urbanization.And the relationship between them around the years of reform and opening-up has significant difference.In addition,although in the short term the urbanization of the year doesn＇t affect carbon dioxide emissions,in the long term there are long-run equilibrium relationships between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions around the years of the reform and opening-up.And the effect of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions is lagging.Therefore,the relative governments design and make polices based on the stage of urbanization.The governments should concern the short-run effect as well as the long-run effect of urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions.And the government may control the carbon dioxide emissions through controlling the process of urbanization.