基于Marquardt法参数估计的变电设备寿命周期故障率评估

Assessment of failure rate for substation equipment life cycle based on Marquardt parameter estimation method

借鉴了目前有关设备故障率的一些理论研究方法,提出了基于Marquardt法参数估计的变电设备寿命周期故障率评估的方法。该方法以电力变压器为例,通过建立电力变压器的故障树模型,采用模糊层次分析法确定各事件的重要度,对电力变压器的可靠度进行计算,然后再利用Marquardt法对两参数的威布尔分布函数的参数进行估计,得到了故障率分界点和故障率的分布曲线函数。通过分布函数得到的故障率分布情况,对变压器全寿命周期的故障率进行评估,从而为变压器的状态检修、技改等提供管理决策。

According to some theoretical research methods of relevant equipment failure rate, and based on Marquardt parameter estimation method, the assessment method of failure rate of substation equipment life cycle is established. For example, in a power transformer, first of all, through establishing the model of power transformer failure rate, fuzzy analytic hierarchy process （FAHP） is utilized to determine the importance degree of each event, and the reliability degree of power transformer is calculated. Then Marquardt method is utilized to estimate the parameter of two-parameter Weibull distribution function, thereby obtaining the cut-off of failure rate and the distribution curve function of failure rate. Finally in accordance with the failure rate distribution circumstances obtained from distribution function, the life cycle failure rate can be assessed, so as to provide the management decisions for power transformer condition-based maintenance, technical upgrading, etc.