基于改进语言评估标度的专家后验权重确定方法研究

Research on Method of Analyzing the Posterior Weight of Experts Based on New Evaluation Scale of Linguistic Information

针对大型复杂项目的高度不确定性,专家评价的模糊性和差异性等特点,本文给出了一种实用的语言评估新标度,并提出了不确定扩展语言信息的概念。利用改进的语言评估标度分别探讨确定语言信息、不确定语言信息及不确定扩展语言信息下的专家后验权重的确定方法,认为前两者均为后者的特殊表现形式。最后用型号项目风险评价实例证明了方法的科学有效性以及评价结果的合理性。

A new evaluation scale of linguistic information is given and a new concept of uncertain extended linguistic information is developed in this paper, with high uncertainty in large and complicated project program, difference and fuzziness in the evaluations of experts. Based on the developed evaluation scale, some straightforward formulas to determine the posterior weights of experts are given respectively with certain linguistic information, uncertain linguistic information and uncertain extended linguistic information, and the first two are considered as particular cases of uncertain extended linguistic information. Finally, the effectiveness of the method and the rationality of the evaluation result are proved by a practical example.