M&S可信度的形式化评估

Formulated Evaluation of M&S Credibility

针对仿真可信度评估是VV&A的核心内容,为了有效的利用VV&A活动的有关信息,提高可信度的准确性和可操作性,提出根据形式化评估来提高可信度的准确性和可操作性。首先对仿真可信度的概念进行了描述,然后从主观概率的观点出发,指出了M&S可信度的形式化的概念———概率概念的某种推广、具有条件独立性、层次性以及与相似性原理的一致性。最后结合模型层次性结构和M&S开发生命周期,论证了可信度形式化概念的具体应用。通过分析和论证,表明了M&S可信度形式化评估的可操作性和准确性。和传统的方法相比,新提出的评估方法考虑了M&S全生命周期的评估,为仿真模型可信度评估提供了正确方法。

Credibility evaluation of modeling ＆ simulation is the key of VV＆A, and it is crucial to using information efficiently provided by VV＆A activities for promoting the accuracy of simulation credibility. In this paper, the accuracy of simulation credibility was studied from formulated evaluation. Firstly, the paper described the definition of simulation credibility. Secondly, from subject probability opinion, the formulated definition of credibility of M＆S was formulated from the followings： generalization of the probability concept, conditional independence, hierarchy and consistency with the similarity law. Finally, based on the hierarchy structure of models and M＆S lifecycle, the paper discussed the applications of formulated evaluation of simulation credibility. Through discussion and analyses, it shows that the formulated evaluation definition of simulation credibility is operable and correct. The method pro- posed by this paper considers M＆S lifecycle evaluation compared with traditional evaluation methods.