我国需求结构失衡及其程度评估

Imbalance of China's demand structure and the assessment of the extent

需求结构变化虽然不存在可以适用于所有经济体的一般变化模式,但从需求结构变化中的收入效应、规模效应和结构效应依然可以发现其中的一些规律,依据这些规律,我们构造了居民消费率变化与三类效应之间的关系等式。根据这一等式模拟居民消费率变化趋势对我国需求结构失衡情况进行的评估表明,尽管我国需求结构存在失衡,但失衡程度相对有限,如果剔除水平因素,失衡总体上还是在经济增长可以承受范围之内,其中,居民消费率只是近年来才表现出偏离一般水平的变化模式。

Although the changes in demand structure have no general pattern for all economies,we can find some laws in their income effects,scale effects and structure effects.According to those laws,we construct the equation of the changes in resident consumption rate and the three effects.Based on the equation,the estimation on the imbalance of demand structure by the simulation of the changes in resident consumption rate suggests that,although there is some imbalance in China's demand structure,the extent is relatively limited;if we do not consider the level factor,the imbalance generally is acceptable considering economic growth;and that only in recent years we find resident consumption rate deviates from the general change pattern.