中国共享式经济增长实证研究——基于公共支出、部门效应和政府治理的分析

Empirical Study on Inclusive Growth in China:Analysis Based on Public Expenditure,Sector Effects and Government Governance

文章首先基于多维贫困指标SHPI构建了共享式增长指数PEG,然后运用公共支出、政府治理水平和部门效应三个方面的指标来考察共享式增长。文章具体通过协整和误差修正模型分析了长期和短期影响共享式增长的主要因素及其调整机制,并在此基础上重点估计了各部门公共支出对共享式增长的影响。文章发现1978-2008年中国经济增长总体上具有共享性,但是大部分年份的共享程度较低。长期内,在公共支出、部门效应和政府治理水平三大类因素中公共支出方面的三个变量对PEG的影响最大。短期内,政府一般性支出和政府规模对共享式增长程度有非常显著的消极影响。

Firstly, this paper constructs inclusive growth index based on multidimensional poverty index and employs indices concerning public expenditure, government governance and sector effects to study inclusive growth. Then it analyzes the short-term and long-term determinants of inclusive growth through co-integration model and error correction model, and focuses on the effects of sector public expenditure on inclusive growth. It shows that the economic growth in China from 1978 to 2008 is featured by inclusiveness as a whole, but the inclusive degree is low in most years. In the long run,the effect of public expenditure on PEG is the largest; in the short run, general government expenditure and government scale have significantly negative effects on the degree of inclusive growth.