基于MESS模型的服务业影响因素及空间溢出效应分析——以浙江省69个市县为例

MESS Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Service Industry and Spatial Spillover Effects:Taking 69 Cities and Counties in Zhejiang Province for Example

基于矩阵指数空间规范(MESS)模型,文章以浙江省69个市县为例,采用Bayes方法对服务业的影响因素进行了空间计量分析。研究发现,浙江省各市县的服务业存在显著的空间相依性和空间异质性。地区的服务业从业人员比例、人口密度、工业产值以及地方财政支出占GDP的比例不仅对本地区的服务业增长有显著的促进作用,还对邻近地区的服务业有正向溢出效应;而地区的全社会固定资产投资对服务业的发展则是一个抑制性因素。

Based on the MESS model, this paper takes 69 cities and counties in Zhejiang province for example and employs Bayesian method to make a spatial econometric analysis of the influencing factors of service industry. The results show that the service industry in cities and counties in Zhejiang province is characterized by significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity. It finds that the factors such as regional employment in service industry,population density, industry output, the percent of regional fiscal expenditure in GDP,not only have positive effects on the development of local service industry,hut also have positive spillover effects on neighborhood service industry. However, the regional total investment in fixed assets restricts the development of service industry.