我国工业增长模式及其转型机制研究——基于23个省份1998-2007年工业的实证研究

On Industry Growth Mode and Its Transition Mechanism:Empirical Study Based on Industrial Data of 23 Provinces from 1998 to 2007

文章以我国23个省份1998-2007年工业为研究对象,采用环境和能源约束下的前沿生产模型分析了我国工业增长模式及转型机制,结果表明:(1)省级人均产出的增长差异导致区域工业产出水平差距扩大,并使省级人均产出分布函数由1998年的单峰分布演进为2007年的双峰分布。相比于1998年,省级人均产出变异系数由0.3356上升至0.3487,技术效率变异系数由0.2961下降至0.2862。(2)13个省份技术进步对产出增长的贡献最大,9个省份要素投入深化对产出增长的贡献最大。(3)资本投入和能源消耗显著促进了产出增长,而二氧化硫排放显著阻碍了产出增长。资本投入、能源消耗和二氧化硫排放均显著阻碍了技术效率水平的提高。资本投入、能源消耗和二氧化硫排放均对要素投入深化效应有显著正向影响。

Based on industrial data of 23 provinces from 1998 to 2007, this paper employs production frontier model under environment and energy constraint to analyze industry growth mode in China and its transition mechanism. It arrives at the following conclusions： firstly,the growth differences of provincial per capita output lead to the increase in the gap of regional in dustry output and the transformation of the distribution function of provincial per capita output from single-peak distribution in 1998 to double-peak distribution in 2007; compared to the year 1998, the variation coefficient of provincial per capita output rises form O. 3356 to O. 3487 and the variation coefficient of technological efficiency declines from O. 2961 to O. 2862; secondly, the contribution of technological progress to output growth is the largest in 13 provinces and the contribution of factor input deepening to output growth is the largest in 9 provinces thirdly, capital input and energy consumption significantly promote output growth and S02 emission obviously impedes output growth. Capital input, energy consumption and SO2 emission have the significantly negative effects on the increase in technological efficiency and the significantly positive effects on factor input deepening.