贸易结算货币的新选择:稳定的篮子货币——对“金砖五国”货币合作的探讨

A New Choice of Trade Settlement Currency:A Stable Basket of Currencies Based on the Analysis on Monetary Cooperation of BRICS Members

文章研究"金砖五国"货币合作的可能形式,构建了稳定的篮子货币作为贸易结算货币,为货币合作提供政策建议。文章首先考察了汇率之间的关系,认为一种货币的加权几何平均汇率能够消除不同货币表示币值的差异,在此基础上构建了篮子货币指数;其次研究了篮子货币波动最小的货币权重的选取,通过最优化方法获得最优权重;最后模拟计算了"金砖五国"篮子货币的权重,并探讨了如何把篮子货币最优权重转化为具体的货币篮子,同时给出了篮子货币和各国货币之间的汇率关系。

This paper studies the possible form of monetary cooperation among BRICS members, establishes a stable basket of currencies viewed as the trade settlement currency, and provides policy suggestion for monetary cooperation. Firstly, it explores the relationship among exchange rates, and considers that the weighted geometric mean of a currency＇s exchange rates can eliminate the differences of currency values in terms of different currencies; on this base, it establishes the basket-of-currencies index. Secondly, it studies the selection of currency weights that make the smallest fluctuation of a basket of currencies and obtains the optimal weights by the optimization method. Finally,it computes the weights of a basket of currencies of BRICS members by simulation, and discusses how to transform the optimal weight of a basket of currencies into concrete currency basket; at the same time,it provides the exchange rates of a basket of currencies against each currency.