我国地震预报的战略建议与思考

STRATEGIC PROPOSALS AND THOUGHTS ON EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN CHINA

讨论了我国地震预报面对的问题和困难。认为只有加强以形变为主的前兆观测 ,才能作出地震的短临预报。目前前兆观测的主要问题在于可信度差 ,应把重点放在仪器探头上 ,只有探头提供的信息“源”可靠了 ,后续的采集、传输、预报的“流”才会有坚实的基础。我国现在建立以形变为主的前兆台网的技术条件已经成熟 ,建议建立全国高精度的高、中、低频衔接的前兆物理信息观测网络。

The problems and difficulties in front of earthquake prediction in China are discussed. It is further proposed that the precursory observation,especially taking the deformation as the domicnant approach,must be strengthened,and only on this bases the short term and imminent earthquake prediction could be made. The main problem of precursory observation at present is about the poor credibility. The solution to the problem should be focused on how to obtain precursory information authentically,reliably and stably,that is to say,the focal point should be put on the instrumental detector.Only if the detector provides authentic information “source”, can the consequent “flow” of collection,transmission and prediction get solid foundation. Finally,it is demonstrated that at present the conditions in our country are ripe for establishing network of stations with the main aim of observing precursory deformation,and it is suggested that the national observation network of precursory physical information with high precision in the series of high,intermediate and low frequency,should be established.