突出危险性的线性判别法及临界值研究

Linear Discriminatory Analysis on Coal-Gas Outburst Danger and Its Critical Value

根据突出机理的“球壳失稳”理论，将初始释放瓦斯膨胀能和软煤厚度作为理想石门揭煤条件下的突出预测指标．在４０多次突出模拟试验中，出现了３种类型的现象：非突出、弱突出及强烈突出．测定了每次试验中煤样的初始释放瓦斯膨胀能和软分层厚度等数据，并用线性判别分析法进行处理，得到了非突出、弱突出及突出３种动力现象的判别方程及临界值．分析结果表明，煤样的初始释放瓦斯膨胀能在判别石门揭煤动力现象中作用最大，单独采用这一指标预测突出危险性，也具有相当高的准确性．

According to the principle of the “spherical shell stability losing” mechanism, the expansion energy of initial releasing gas and the thickness of soft coal were used as the test indexes to predict the dynamic phenomena when a cross cut is uncovered. During more than 40 simulation experiments of outburst, three types of dynamic phenomena of non outburst ,weak outburst and violent outburst appeared. The expansion energy of initial releasing gas and the thickness of soft coal were measured in every experiment. By handling these test data with linear discriminatory method, the discriminants of three dynamic phenomena and their critical values were obtained. The analysis results show that the expansion energy of initial releasing gas is of great importance to the discrimination of dynamic phenomena under the condition of “uncovering ideal cross cut” and is of quite high accuracy to predict the danger of coal gas outburst with this index.