2008年五大事件对中国入境旅游的影响——基于本底趋势线模型高分辨率的分析

Impact of Five Important Events on China Provincial Inbound Tourism in 2008:An Analysis In High-Resolution Based on the TBL Model

依据旅游本底趋势线理论和月指数距平方法,对2008年五大事件对中国入境旅游的影响进行了高分辨率的定量分析,结果发现:①在五大事件的影响下,2008年中国24个省区入境旅游出现了负增长,其中,广东、四川等省区损失游客67.6～294.5万人,山东、海南等省区损失量小于5万人次;四川、西藏等省区损失率在50.0%～76.7%,安徽、吉林等省区损失率为1.6%～4.6%。②由于事件的性质、发生的时间和持续期不同,对各省区入境旅游影响差异较大,金融海啸共损失游客1 254.86万人次,汶川地震损失游客178.47万人次,奥运入境限制及"奥运抽水"损失入境游客215.02万人次,藏独事件损失游客115.55万人次,南方雪灾损失游客42.41万人次。③五大事件对入境旅游的影响,存在着较大空间差异。南方雪灾的影响集中在南方受灾省区;藏独事件对西藏及北京、上海旅游影响较大;汶川地震影响范围遍及全国,但对四川及其周边省区影响最大;北京奥运会期间,全国大部分省区入境客流量减少;金融海啸影响的时间长范围广,全国31个省区均受到不同程度影响,东部沿海地区入境客流量损失较大。在本底趋势线模型的基础上,定量分析了五大事件对中国31个省区入境旅游的影响,并对6个典型省区旅游危机的交替过程进行了分析。

According quantitatively analyzes to the Tourism Background Trend-line Theory and monthly index anomaly, this article the impacts of the five important events on the Chinese provincial Inbound Tourism in 2008. The following findings are gained ： 1 ） under the influence of the five major events, 24 provinces＇ tourism has shown a negative growth. Among them, some provinces such as Guangdong and Sichuan, Beijing and Zhe jiang decreased as many as 676 × 10^3 -2 945× 10^3 tourists while Shandong, Hainan, Qinghai , Chongqing, Anhui and Jilin decreased less than 50 × 10^3 tourists. As to the tourists loss rate, Sichuan, Tibet, Gansu and Qinghai are highest, from 50.0% to 76.7% , while Anhui, Jilin, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Tianjin and Ningxia are lowest （1.6% -4.6% ）. 2） The five events have various influences on each province because of their different characters, occurring time and last-periods. Financial crisis has resulted in 12.55× 10^6 tourists＇ decrease in total and the earthquake in Wenchuan has decreased 1.78 × 10^6 tourists. Tibetan separatist incidents also decreased 1.16 × 10^6 tourists while the Snow storm in the southern China decreased 0.42 × 10^6tourists. 3 ） The five events have influenced different areas in China. Snow storm mainly affected some provinces in the southern China and Tibetan separatist incidents have more effects on the Tibet, Beijing and Shanghai. The earthquake in Wenchuan affected the most parts of China, especially on Sichuan province ; During Beijing Olympic Game, most provinces attracted less inbound tourists; financial crisis has lasted for a long time, which affected all the 31 provinces in varying degrees while the eastern coastal provinces of China suffered most seriously. According to the tourism background trend line theory, this paper quantitatively analysizes the influences of the five important events on Chinese provincial Inbound Tourism in 2008.