外资进入、制度变迁与银行危机——基于中东欧转型国家的研究

Foreign Bank Entry,Institutional Change and Bank Crisis:Evidence from Central Eastern Europe Countries

本文基于制度变迁来探讨外资进入对中东欧转型国家银行危机的影响机理,研究发现:在制度设计严重缺失的背景下,中东欧国家贸然引进外资会危及银行系统的稳定性,加剧银行危机的发生概率;随其国内相关法律与监管措施的不断完善,外资银行进入对中东欧转型国家银行绩效的提升具有显著的促进作用;但金融过度开放导致银行体系对外资的高度依赖,在面临外生性冲击时,外资银行"传染效应"会导致中东欧国家银行业巨大的系统性风险。

The aim of this paper is to obtain some conclusion to promote the Chinese banking reform by analy- zing the mechanism of foreign bank entry and bank .crisis from the perspective of institutional change in Central and Eastern Europe transition countries. It is found that the foreign bank entry increased the probability of bank crisis in the background of the defection in legal system. With the improvement of legal and financial regulatory system, foreign banks exerted a significant impact on promoting the performance of Central Eastern Europe countries＇ banking. However, the financial liberalization led to Central Eastern Europe countries＇ banking exces- sively dependent on foreign capital, foreign banks brought the great risk to the banking system through the ＂contagion effect＂ when they encounter the external shocking.