能源效率提高对经济结构变动的影响研究——基于内生经济增长理论的探讨

Analysis of the Effect of Energy Efficiency Improvement on Economic Structure Change ——Based on Endogenous Economy Growth Theory

从内生经济增长理论角度对能源制约如何影响经济增长及产业结构调整进行研究,内生的动力源泉假设为技术进步变动率是能源价格变动率的函数。内生均衡研究认为技术进步维持在一个合意的增长速度可以使资本产出比维持不变,经济达到均衡增长。经济结构变动的结果是产业结构向第三产业转移,技术水平获得提高,要素价格上升。但能源价格变动向技术进步变动的传递系数不可过高,否则会出现各中间部门产出小于要素成本,经济崩溃。

This paper studies how energy scarcity affects economic growth and industrial structure change based on endogenous economic growth theory. We assume the power source of economic growth is from the changing rate of energy price transferring to the changing rate of technological progress. The result shows ： there is an appropriate changing rate of technological progress which can maintain the capital-output ratio unchanged while keeping balanced economic growth. The industrial structure moves to tertiary industry. Engineering level and factor prices grow at high level. But changing rate of energy price transferring to the technological progress should not be too high. Otherwise, the output will be less than the economic costs, and the economy system will be collapsed.