网络突发事件的风险分析与管理:一个建议性框架

Risk Analysis and Management of Internet Emergency: A Proposed Framework

通过对网络突发事件生命周期的分析,认为蔓延期对整个事件的发生机理、发展趋势产生着至关重要的影响,网络突发事件的风险主要源于其蔓延与变异性,对网络突发事件的风险分析可以从其蔓延危险性的分析入手。正确评估网络突发事件蔓延的可能性,是阻止其危害性后果产生的先决条件,其蔓延可能性主要受初始事件吸引力、积极分子推动力和传统媒体参与度等因素的影响。网络突发事件的风险管理是预防其产生和发展,减轻其危害性后果的具体手段。政府需在网络突发事件的管理方法上建立共识,并在对其风险管理的基础上,制定出切实有效且操作性强的应急管理指南。

Based on the analysis of the life cycle about the internet emergency, this paper argues that the contagion stage has the crucial impact on it and the risk analysis of the internet emergency should focus on the risk of contagion. The correct assessment for the possibility of contagion is the prerequisite for preventing its harmful consequences. The possibility of contagion is influenced by the attraction of the initial event, the driving force of activists and the participation of traditional media. The risk management of the intternet emergency is the specific means to prevent its emergence, development and harmful consequences. The government needs to build consensus on the management approach for the internet emergency and develop effective emergency management guide.