期房市场对现房价格波动性影响的实证研究——以西部地区为例

Empirical Research on the Effect of Forward-sale House Market on Spot House Price Fluctuation ——Taking the Western Region of China as the Example

通过ARMA-GARCH-M模型对我国西部地区住宅期房市场对现房价格波动性的影响进行实证研究,结果表明:住宅现房价格与宏观经济指标不显著相关,现房价格表现为MA(1)过程;除川、渝两地受"5.12"特大地震的影响外,多数地区房价的波动与收益正相关,;期房市场对现房价格的波动性影响显著,其中期房价格对现房价格波动有正的影响,期房销售面积对现房价格波动有负的影响,且存在一定的滞后性。

Using ARMA-GARCH-M model, this paper researches the effect of forward-sale market on spot house price fluctuation in the western of China. The results show that： the relationship between spot house prices and the macroeconomic indicators is not significant, and the price shows a MA （ 1 ） process; fluctuation in house price shows a positive correlation with profit in most regions, except for Sichuan and Chongqing after the ＂5.12＂ earthquake; the forward-sale market significantly affects the spot house price, the effect of which price is positive, but area is negative and lag.