祁连山七一冰川物质平衡及其对气候变化的敏感性研究

Study of Mass Balance and Sensibility to Climate Change of Qiyi Glacier in Qilian Mountains

依据2010年6月30日-9月5日考察期间获得的七一冰川物质平衡和气温降水等气象资料,运用度日物质平衡模型模拟了七一冰川的物质平衡变化状况.结果表明:七一冰川考察期间物质平衡为-856.2mm w.e..受气温、降水等气候因素的强烈影响,物质平衡过程明显分为"微弱积累-强烈消融-微弱消融"3个阶段.度日物质平衡模型模拟的冰川物质平衡与实测值的变化趋势基本一致,整体反映了冰川物质平衡随海拔上升而增大的空间分布特征.物质平衡的气候敏感性实验表明,物质平衡对气温升降的变化非常敏感,气温是影响冰川物质平衡的主导因素,当气温持续升高时,降水量的少量增加对物质平衡的影响将变得很小.

Based on glacier mass balance,air temperature and precipitation of the Qiyi Glacier from Jun.30 to Sept.5,2010,a degree-day mass balance model was established to imitate the change of mass balance during this period.Observation indicates that the value of mass balance was-856.2 mm w.e.,which is subjected to strong impact of air temperature and precipitation.The mass balance process can be divided into three stages,i.e.,exiguous accumulation,intensive ablation and exiguous ablation.The variation trend of mass balance simulated with the degree-day mass balance model is similar to the observed one.The simulation wholly reflects the spatial distribution characteristics of glacier mass balance which increases with the increase of altitude.The experiment on climate sensitivity of mass balance shows that mass balance is very sensitive to the change of air temperature;air temperature is the key factor which influences mass balance;when air temperature rises continuously,a little increase in precipitation will have a negligible effect on mass balance.