层次分新法在风险管理中的应用与实例分析

Analytic hierarchy process in the risk management application and case analysis

项目管理注重对风险的管理，风险管理的目标在于提高积极事件的概率和影响，降低消极事件的概率和影响。对于多方案的项目，需要在风险分析中综合考虑各个方案的影响，选择最优的方案。风险分析的难点在于很多风险无法量化。层次分析法将无法量化的风险排序，通过数学运算计算综合重要度。这一方法多用于多方案项目，实例中与评分法结合使用，操作性强，可得出相对客观的结果。

Project management attaches importance to risk management. Risk management＇ s objective is to improve the probability and the impact of positive events, and reduce the probability and the impact of negative events. For multi- program projects, considering the impact of various options is necessary in risk analysis, and the target is to choose the best solution. The difficulty is that many risk analysis can not quantify risk. AHP can sequence the risks which can not be quantified, and achieve the general importance degree by mathematical calculations. The method is used in conjunction with scoring for multi-program projects in real case. It＇ s feasible and can get relatively objective results.