基于灰色系统理论和PCA的省域生态环境质量研究

A Study on Provincial Eco-Environmental Quality Based on Grey System Theory and PCA

为调研山东省的生态环境质量情况，明确其主要影响因素，并了解其在全国各省市中所处的水平，借助灰色关联度模型对2009年中国各省市进行了环境质量综合评价，对省市间作横向对比分析。进一步采用主成分分析法对2003-2009年间山东省的生态环境质量进行了动态评价，得到了2003年以来山东省生态环境变化趋势。结果显示，山东省生态环境质量目前存在的问题主要包括：水资源严重短缺，水生态平衡失调、森林资源及自然保护区面积偏少、人均工业废物排放量偏高等。山东省的生态环境变化在2003-2006年间稳中有升，自2006年以来生态环境质量明显好转，反映了生态省建设工作取得了初步成效。对仍需进一步加强的环境治理方面提出了政策建议。

To comprehensively evaluate the provincial eco-environmental quality of China in 2009, the model of grey relative level was used. The eco-environmental quality of Shandong Province in the period of 2003-2009 was dynamically analysed by constructing an index system and using the principal component analysis （PCA）, and its changing trends since 2003 have been obtained. It showed that the main factors to influence the eco-environmental quality of Shandong Province included the serious shortage of water resources, disorder of aquatic ecosystem, paucity of forest resources and natural reserves, a little higher per capita volume of industrial waste discharges, and etc. It was found that the status of eco-environment of Shandong Province in the period of 2003-2006 kept steady whilst a little improvement was made, and its quality has been evidently turning for the better since 2006 so as to reflect the preliminary success of the efforts for reconstruction of an eco-province. Finally, policy suggestions on further strengthening the environmental rehabilitation were given.