货币驱动下的中国价格传导机制研究

Research on Monetary-driven Price Transmission Mechanism in China

2011年是近年来通货膨胀最严重的一年,7月我国CPI同比增长6.5%,创历史新高。理论界关于货币超发促使我国长期结构性通货膨胀这一事实已经达成共识,货币的发行对价格传导机制的驱动仍然是学术界重点讨论的关键。通过对四种价格指数分别进行长期协整检验,建立误差修正模型,测量四种价格指数的长期关系及短期影响,同时借用格兰杰因果检验对上下游价格影响方向进行检验,并运用脉冲函数对影响的程度进行测量,最终得到上下游价格波动的总体特征。在研究通货通货膨胀原动力的基础上,对有效防止我国通货膨胀进一步恶化提出合理化建议。

The year of 2011 is the most serious inflation year for China with its CPI up to 6.5% in July 2011 year-on-year,which was the highest in record.In theoretic circles,it is commonly recognized that monetary oversupply would lead to long-time structural inflation in China.The transmission mechanism driven by monetary supply upon prices is still the key question among academicians.This paper tries to study the time lag effect of monetary supply upon the upstream,middle and downstream prices and reflects the monetary-driven price transmission mechanism in China.Through the respective long-term co-integration test on four price indexes,error correction model（ECM） is set up to measure the long-term relationship and short-term influence of the four price indexes.In the meantime,With Granger causality test to verify the influence direction between upstream and downstream prices,using impulse function to measure the degree of influence,there comes a general feature of fluctuation in upstream and downstream prices.The research on the motive force of inflation will play a positive role in preventing inflation from further deterioration in China.