影响我国长期护理保险需求的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Influencing Factors of Demand for Long-term Care Insurance

本文通过建立对数线性模型,从宏观角度对影响我国长期护理保险需求的经济因素进行实证分析,发现我国社会医疗保险和社会养老保险基金年支出每增加1%,商业长期护理保险的需求量就会增加0.122 2%。但是宏观层面的城镇居民人均收入、一年期金融机构法定存款利率和当前通货膨胀程度,对长期护理保险需求的影响并未在模型中显著呈现出来。

This article formulates a statistical model to analyze the factors which affect the demand for long-term care insurance from macroscopic perspective.It finally finds out that as the expenditure of social medical insurance（LTCI） and social pension insurance per year increased by 1%,the demand of commercial long-term care will go up by 0.122 2%;the influence over long term care insurance demand in terms of disposable income in real terms for urban residents,the one-year official interest rate for financial institutions and current inflation level are subtle according to the model.