广州气温变化特征及其与城市化进程的关系

Relationship between temperature transformation and urbanization development of Guangzhou

选取广州市1953～2009年气温观测资料,应用Cubic函数拟合和线性拟合方法分析了气温变化特征.在此基础上,利用1999～2007年城市化指标数据,通过主成分分析,探讨城市化发展水平对年平均气温的影响.结果表明:①近30年以来,随着城市化进程的加快,广州市年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,变化率为0.38℃.10a-1;月极端高温变化率明显增大,月极端低温变化率波动显著.②冬季和秋季月平均气温、月平均最高气温以及月平均最低气温显著上升对广州市气候变暖的贡献较大.③生活方式城市化、城市下垫面性质、人口城市化水平是影响年平均气温上升的主要因子,与年平均气温呈明显正相关,相关系数分别达到0.867,0.8910,.996.

On the basis of temperature datis from 1953 to 2009 of Guangzhou, using the Cubic function fitting and linear fitting method, the characteristics of the temperature change was comparatively analyzed. Based on this, urbanization indiCator data from 1999 to 2007 of Guangzhou were preliminarily analyzed with the principal component analysis to research the relationship between the development of urbanization and the average temperature transformation. The results showed that the changing rate of the average temperatures was 0.38 ~C ~ 10a-1, which had increased remarkably with the development urbanization effects in Guangzhou in recent 30 years. The change rate of extreme maximum temperature had increased significantly , and the change rate of extreme minimum temperature had significant fluctuation which was more from the influence of urbanization. The increasing of the monthly average temperature, the monthly average maximum temperature and the monthly average minimum temperature in winter and autumn produced greater contributions to the climate warming of Guang- zhou. The life style of urbanization, the nature or the structure changing of underlying surface, and the level of population urbanization were the dominant factors which influenced the change of the average temperature of Guangzhou. The correlative coefficients between these main urbanization factors and the average temperature respectively reached 0. 867, 0. 891,0. 996.