摘要
利用层级回归模型分析了经济增长对风电产业成长的直接效应和调节效应。实证分析表明:(1)经济增长显著调节碳排放强度对风电产业成长的影响,降低碳排放强度有助于削弱风电产业成长幅度;(2)经济增长显著调节风电投资成本对风电产业成长的影响,风电投资成本下降导致风电产业爆发式成长;(3)风电投资成本与碳排放强度共同提升了经济增长对风电产业成长的影响。因此,降低碳排放强度、控制风电投资成本下降幅度是保持风电产业稳定发展的有效途径。
The direct effects and adjustment effects of economic growth on the growth of wind power are analyzed by using hierarchical regression model. The empirical analyses indicate firstly that economic growth significantly adjusts the impact of carbon emission intensity on the growth of wind power. At present, reducing carbon emission in- tensity can weaken the growth amplitude of wind power. Secondly, economic growth significantly adjust the impact of the cost of wind power investment on the growth of wind power. Decline in the cost of wind power investment results in the rapid development of wind power. Thirdly, wind power investment cost and carbon emission intensity jointly promote the impact of economic growth on the growth of wind power. Therefore, the effective ways to let wind power industry keep steady development are to reduce carbon emission intensity and to control the decline of wind power investment cost.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第1期87-90,共4页
On Economic Problems
基金
教育部人文社科基金项目"资源禀赋与能源需求双重约束下的我国风能资源开发战略研究"(09YJA630052)
江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"新能源产业发展的培育与规制问题研究"(2010-2-09)
江苏省博士后基金项目"区域风电产业链系统协同发展研究"(1001072C)
关键词
层级回归
调节效应
风电产业
经济增长
hierarchical regression
adjustment effect
wind power
economic growth
