关于加工贸易、实际汇率与经常账户的分析

The Research of Processing Trade,Real Exchange Rate and Current Account

考虑我国自然资源相对缺乏、加工贸易快速发展、实行固定汇率制度和强制结售汇制度等基本特征,建立了一个分析我国实际汇率和经常账户问题的计量模型,并对人民币实际汇率与经常账户的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国经常账户持续顺差并非由汇率低估所致,人民币汇率调整难以根本解决经常账户持续顺差问题。资本管制放松、社会保障体系不健全和收入差距逐渐加大是我国1994年以来经常账户持续顺差的主要原因。在我国对外开放程度日益提高的情况下,妥善处理我国的经常账户持续顺差问题应从以下几个方面入手:稳定实际利率、名义汇率升值、加快社会保障体系建设和缩小居民收入差距。

This thesis establishes a current account determined model that can reflect Chinese basic characteristics such as relative lack of natural resources, rapidly developing processing trade, fixed exchange rate system, compulsory foreign exchange settlement system and so on. With this model, the relationship between RMB real exchange rate and current account is studied. The empirical analysis results show that Chinese current account surplus is not caused by an undervalued exchange rate, and RMB exchange rate adjustment is difficult to fundamentally solve the current account surplus problem. Relaxation of ＇capital control, unsound social security system and the gradual increasing income gap in China is the main reasons of current account surplus since 1994. Under the cir- cumstances that Chinese degree of openness to abroad remains increasingly enhanced, we should resolve Chinese longrunning current account surplus by stabilizing real interest rate, appreciating nominal exchange rate, speeding up the construction of social insurance system and narrowing habitant income gap.