厂商采用新技术的最优时机研究——基于Bass模型和实物期权理论

Study on Firms’ Optimal Adopting Timing of New Technologies——Based on Bass Model and Real Options Theory

新产品的价格与扩散的变化过程是厂商计算新技术投资价值的重要因素,现有文献未能考虑新产品扩散所呈现的S形特征,投资价值的预测值与实际值差距较大。文章在新产品价格服从几何布朗运动的假设下,用Bass模型模拟新产品的扩散过程,构建了离散时间状态下结合新产品扩散特征的实物期权定价模型,并通过三叉树方法得到厂商采用新技术的最优时机。

The pricing and diffusion process of new products are the important factors when firms evaluate the investment value of new technology. Existing researches failed to express the S-shaped feature of new product diffusion, resulting in a big gap between predictive value and real value of investment. Supposing that new product price follow geometric Brownian motion, this paper simulates the new product diffusion process by using Bass model. Then it constructs a new real option pricing mode combining new product diffusion feature, this model is fit for discrete-time state. At last, by adopting trinomial tree pricing model, this paper gets the optimal timing for firms to adopting new technology.