基于混沌理论的海南旅游业危机预警机制构建

Tourism Crisis Early Warning Mechanism Engineering Construction in Hainan Province Based on Chaos Theory

基于混沌理论构建旅游业危机预警机制是防治旅游业危机的有效手段。阐述了旅游业危机理论、混沌理论和旅游业危机预警机制理论,剖析了海南2007—2010年旅游业危机事件,建立了海南旅游业危机评价指标体系、危机预警机制、危机防治综合管理机制和教育与宣传等系统。研究表明,防治旅游业危机事件,关键是重视旅游行业初期敏感性,对初始值进行有效控制,而建立危机预警机制、危机防治综合管理机制和加强教育与宣传是其核心内容。

Based on Chaos theory to research on tourism crisis warning mechanism engineering which was an effective method to prevent tourism crisis. This paper presented the Chaos theory, tourism crisis and early warning mechanism engineering theory, analyzed Hainan tourism crisis from 2007 to 2010, built the Hainan tourism crisis evaluation index system, the crisis warning system, the crisis prevention of comprehensive management mechauism and the education and publicity system, research showed that which prevent the tourism crisis, the key was to pay attention to early tourism industry sensitivity and control the initial value, the core was to establish the early warning mechanism engineering, the crisis prevention of comprehensive management mechanism and strengthen the education and publicity.