一种基于博弈论的疏散出口选择模型

Game Theory Based Exit Selection Model for Evacuation

针对紧急情况下人员疏散行为的特点,提出一种基于博弈论的疏散模型。模型考虑了疏散过程中疏散者之间的相互影响,每个逃生者根据其他逃生者的策略进行最优决策,逃生者的策略为纳什均衡下的策略。给出纳什均衡的求解方法,通过实例模拟验证其合理性。模型采用基于元胞自动机的仿真技术对人员疏散过程进行仿真,通过仿真表明模型能有效模拟多出口条件下人员应急疏散特性。

This paper presents a model based on game theory,for the characters of the evacuation behavior in emergency.In consideration of evacuees＇ interact during the evacuation process,every evacuee makes a best decision due to others＇ strategies,which is called Nash equilibrium strategy.This model presents a Method for solving the Nash equilibrium,and the rationality of the method is validated by sample simulation.The model simulates the process of the evacuation by adopting cellular automata technology to indicates the model can simulate effectively the personnel emergent characteristic under the multi-exits condition.