北京市生活垃圾填埋场产甲烷不确定性定量评估

Uncertainty Analysis for Evaluating Methane Emissions from Municipal Solid Waste Landfill in Beijing

为了提高北京市生活垃圾填埋场产CH4评估精度,联合FOD模型和Monte Carlo方法,依靠本地和国家数据及专家经验,对模型进行不确定性识别和敏感性分析,量化各参数对模型输出结果的影响.结果表明,2008年北京市因填埋产CH4量95%的概率分布范围为(11.80～19.76)×104t.a-1,均值为15.58×104t.a-1,排放的不确定范围为-24.26%～26.83%.FOD模型中甲烷修正因子MCF(2000年后)对2008年排放结果的影响最大,其结果不确定性的贡献率为41.4%.研究提高了北京市生活垃圾填埋场CH4排放量评估精度和质量,为指导填埋场温室气体清单改进和数据收集提供科学依据.

In order to improve the accurate evaluation of CH4emissions from municipal solid waste landfill in Beijing, FOD-model and Monte Carlo method were conducted. Based on local data, national data and experts＇ experience, the uncertainty of FOD-model and parameters＇ sensitivity analysis were identified. And we quantified effect of various parameters on model output. The results showed that 95% probability distribution range of CH4 emission from landfill was （11.8-19.76）×104 t·a-1 in Beijing. The mean value was 15.58×104 t·a-1 with uncertainty range of -24.26%-26.83%. Among all the parameters MCF（after 2000） showed the greatest impact on landfill CH4 emission in 2008, and its contribution to the uncertainty of emission result was 41.4%. This research can improve the assessment accuracy and quality on CH4 emission from municipal solid waste landfill in Beijing, as providing scientific basis to improve the landfill greenhouse gas inventory and data collection.