日本财政危机的走势及根源分析

Analysis of the Causes and Trends of Japan's Financial Crisis

自泡沫经济崩溃以来,日本财政赤字危机日渐严重,虽然2006年稍事好转,却于全球金融危机中,再次深陷财政危机的泥沼。2011年,日本政府为东海岸地震而额外增加的财政支出又使日本雪上加霜。日本陷入财政危机困境的原因主要在于:经济景气、人口老龄化、制度因素、欧美反衬因素、公共投资乘数下降以及维持庞大公共支出规模等6个方面。文末预测日本在今后的几年中,仍无法阻止国债余额的增长,赤字财政危机状况令人担忧。

Japans financial mild improvement in 2006, expenditure for the Tohoku deficit crisis has been deteriorating since the collapse of the bubble economy. A however, was interrupted by the global financial crisis. In 2011, the additional earthquake has made the Japanese financial position even worse. Major causes of Japans financial deficit crisis include economic recession, aging of the population, institutional distortions, European and American contrasting, declining of public investment multiplier and the maintaining of large - scale public spending. This study argues that in the following years, the national debt will keep expanding and the Japanese financial deficit crisis will keep growing.