非欧佩克产油国的生产能力及其与油价走势的关系

Production Capacity of Non-OPEC Oil Producers and Its Rela-tionship to Oil Price

世界上有50多个非欧佩克产油国,它们以不足1/4的储量生产着占世界年产量近60％的石油,其石油资源整体上处于超强开发状态。高成本的非欧佩克石油先于低成本的欧佩克(中东)石油而得到开发,这一反常局面是七八十年代高油价期的产物。非欧佩克生产能力的升降,在很大程度上受制于国际油价的周期性波动,而其对油价的影响只是一种有限的市场效应。在可以预见的将来,非欧佩克产油国仍将作为平衡欧佩克影响的重要力量活跃在国际石油市场,其主要作用仍将是抑制欧佩克“哄抬”油价,但非欧佩克生产能力大幅上升的机会减少,而且将越来越受制于国际油价的总体走势、各国的资源条件以及全球乃至局部的政治经济形势。目前已不存在中东产油国得以发动新的“石油危机”而使油价飙升的国际环境,世界石油市场供大于求的总体格局也将延续下去。只要油价能稳定在每桶15-20美元水平,非欧佩克的石油生产能力就可望在现有的基础上有所增长。

There are over 50 non-OPEC oil producers worldwide. They account for about 60% of the world's total annual oil production, but their reserves only account for less than a quarter of the world's total. Their petroleum resources are somewhat overdeveloped. The high-cost, non-OPEC petroleum resources were developed before the low-cost OPEC (Middle East) resources. This abnormal situation is the result of high oil price periods during 1970s and 1980s. The rise and fall of non-OPEC production capacity is to a greater extent controlled by the periodic fluctuations in international oil price, while its impact on oil price has only a limited market effect. In the foreseeable future, non-OPEC oil producers, as a major force for balancing OPEC influence, will continue to be active in the international petroleum market. Their major role is to restrain OPEC from driving up oil prices. However, the opportunity for a significant increase in non-OPEC production capacity is reduced. Furthermore, non-OPEC production capacity is becoming more restricted by the general trend of international oil prices, resource conditions of various countries, as well as global and regional political and economic situations. At present, the international environment does not support a new oil crisis to be launched by Middle Eastern oil producers for driving up oil prices. The overall framework of the world's petroleum market characterized by supply exceeding demand will continue. Non-OPEC production capacity is expected to increase somewhat so long as oil prices are stabilized at a level of US$15-20/bbl.