“十五”期间我国汽煤柴油市场发展预测

Projections for China's Gasoline, Kerosene and Diesel Markets During the Tenth 5-Year Plan Period

“十五”期间国民经济的快速发展将是我国油品需求增长的根本动力,经济增长方式的变化、燃油税的征收和燃气汽车的兴起可能对汽柴油的需求产生较大影响。预计在“九五”最后两年和“十五”初期,我国油品需求的增长将难以恢复到前几年的速度,2000～2005年汽柴油需求的年均增长率分别为2.1％和4.4％,到2005年汽柴油需求量将分别达到3900～4000万吨、7500～7700万吨。另外,油品需求内涵的变化将对成品油市场以及炼油企业的生存环境产生关键性的影响,油品品种和质量的需求与供应之间的矛盾将日益突出。

Rapid economic development during the Tenth 5-year plan (2001 -2005) will cause increased demand for petroleum products in China. The change in the mode of economic growth, the levying of fuel tax and the increasing use of natural gas vehicles will have a significant effect on the demand for gasoline and diesel. The demand growth rate for petroleum products in the last two years of the Ninth 5-year plan (1999-2000) and in the beginning of the Tenth 5-year plan are not expected to regain the pace of the past few years. The annual demand growth rates for gasoline and diesel will be 2.1 % and 4.4% respectively from 2000-2005. The demands for gasoline and diesel will reach 39-40 million tons and 75-77 million tons respectively by 2005. Furthermore, the connotative change in petroleum product demand will have a critical impact on the petroleum product market and refining enterprises' chances for survival. The contradiction between demand and supply of petroleum product variety and quality will become increasingly pronounced.