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探讨宏观交通需求预测模型中越江通道的预测方法

Research on the Travel Demand Forecasting Method about the River-Crossing Channels
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摘要 宏观交通需求模型中越江通道的预测结果对整个模型的准确性有较大影响,归纳总结了3种不同的预测方法,通过对实际案例的研究,采用常用的交通模型指标(期望线、断面流量、饱和度、车公里数和车小时数)分析了3种计算方法的预测结果,得出推荐的最优预测方法,并重点剖析了推荐预测方法的合理性和先进性。 There is a great impact on the accuracy by the results of travel demand forecasting model about the river-crossing channels. This paper summarizes three methods for the transportation forecasting model. After finishing the research with a real project, this paper compares and analyses the forecasting results by some transportation model indicators (such as desire line, volume, VCR, VKT and VHT). Then it gives the best forecasting method recommended and also analyses the rationality and the advantage.
作者 傅淳
出处 《交通与运输》 2011年第B12期66-70,共5页 Traffic & Transportation
关键词 越江通道 循环反馈 连续平均法 结果分析 收敛性 River-crossing channel Feed-back loop Method of Successive Average (MSA) Result analysis Convergence
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参考文献4

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