基于灰色系统理论的间断性需求备件预测模型

Forecasting Model of Spare Parts with Intermittent Demand Based on Gray System Theory

针对间断性需求备件历史需求数据缺乏、含有大量零值,以致难以进行预测的问题,应用灰色系统理论,先后建立了间断性需求备件预测的非等间隔GM(1,1)模型和包络GM(1,1)模型,并得到了需求预测灰区间,最后进行了计算与实例仿真。

In order to deal with the difficulty in forecasting the intermittent demand of spare parts resulting from the insufficiency of historical demand data and the fact that the available data contains a large number of zero value, the paper use the gray system theory to formulate a non-equidistance GM（ 1,1 ） and an envelope GM（1,1 ） model and obtain the gray interval of the forecasting. Finally, an empirical simulation study is used to verify the utility of the method.