深潜器援潜救生作业综合安全评估

Formal safety assessment of DSRV′s rescue for disabled submarine

针对深潜器援潜救生作业中的安全性问题,根据综合安全评估方法的基本原理,建立了基于语言值变量和模糊概率的援潜救生作业安全评估模型。该模型首先利用专家语言值初评作业系统的风险,再对风险较大的主要影响事件进行过程分析和模糊故障树分析,并采取合理的措施保证其安全,很好地解决了作业过程中统计数据少、"一次性事件"较多以及决策时间短给安全评估工作带来的难题。对深潜器某次作业进行安全性评估的结果表明:该模型是合理可行的。

A formal safety assessment model based on linguistic variables and fuzzy probability was proposed to evaluate the risk of DSRV′s rescue for disabled submarine.In the model,the risk of engineering system was assessed approximately by experts′ linguistic variables firstly,and the process analysis and the fuzzy fault tree analysis events were made of where the risk was not acceptable.Then a reasonable risk control means was taken to prevent accidents.In this way,the problems of shortage of data and limited time for decision-making were solved,and the safety assessment of engineering system was carried out effectively.A case was studied in order to demonstrate the application of the model.The results show that the model is reasonable and feasible.