凯恩斯流动性陷阱理论乃伪命题之论证——基于全口径、全过程及“三条龙”规律的分析

On the Argumentation that Keynesian Liquidity Trap Theory is a False Proposition:Based on the Analysis of Full Aperture,Whole Process and Three Dragons Principle

凯恩斯宏观管理理论认为,市场经济具有有效需求不足的必然性,由于存在"流动性"陷阱问题,货币政策本身是无效的,宏观管理必须依靠实施赤字财政政策以解决有效需求不足问题。本文研究表明,"流动性陷阱"的存在并不意味着货币政策失效。从全口径的角度分析,"流动性陷阱"表明货币政策对证券市场直接有效,对实体经济间接有效;从全过程角度分析,"流动性陷阱"具有暂时性,一般只存在几个月,这是货币政策有效的另一表现形式,即存在政策时滞;从实体经济、虚拟经济、货币政策的"三条龙"运行规律分析,则实体经济、虚拟经济和货币政策之间具有协调运行的特征,运行中存在非同步性。在边际消费递减规律被证明并不存在的背景下,凯恩斯宏观管理理论的三大假设条件都被证实是伪命题,因此,凯恩斯宏观管理理论完全是非科学的。

In Keynesian macro management theory, market economy has an inevitability of effective demand shortage. Because of the liquidity trap, monetary policy is not valid,and the government must carry out macro management by implementing deficit fiscal policy to solve the problem of effective demand shortage. In this paper, it shows that the existence of ＂liquidity trap＂ does not mean the failure of monetary policy. From the perspective of full aperture, ＂liquidity trap＂ shows that monetary policy has a direct effect upon the stock market, and has an indirect effect upon the real economy. From the perspective of whole process, ＂liquidity trap＂ has a temporary characteristics, generally can only exist for several months, it is another effective form of monetary policy, that is, the existence of policy delay. From the perspective of ＂three dragon ＂ operation law of real economy, virtual economy and monetary policy, real economy, virtual economy and monetary policy have a characteristic of coordinated operation, and it is non-synchronous. Under the background that the decreasing law of marginal consumption is proved not to be existed, the three hypothesis conditions of Keynesian macro management theory are proved to be a false proposition, therefore, Keynesian macro management theory is totally non-scientific.