退耕还林(草)背景下延安市粮食安全态势评析

Analysis on Grain Security Trend of Yan'an City in the Scenario of Grain for Green Project

延安市的粮食生产与粮食安全问题关系到延安市退耕还林(草)工程的持久、稳定。运用最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型法,采用耕地面积、粮食产量、人口数量等数据,分析了1997-2007年延安市粮食安全状态。结果表明:在空间上,延安市宝塔区以南县区的耕地压力指数、最小耕地面积较小,粮食生产压力小,耕地的生产力高;在时间上,1998-2003年延安市耕地压力指数、最小耕地面积呈上升态势,2003年后则趋于下降。近些年耕地压力指数略高于1,区内耕地压力、粮食供需矛盾有所缓解,但粮食安全问题依然存在。对此,延安市应控制人口增长,通过改造中低产田、旱作农业技术的应用等途径稳定粮食生产。

Grain production and grain security problem have greatly affected the persistency and stability of Grain for Green Project of Yan＇an City.The paper uses minimum cropland area per capita and cropland pressure index model as a means to analyze the security state of Yan＇an＇s grain production from 1997 to 2007 based on the data of cropland area,grain production,population size,etc.The result shows that the cropland pressure index is low,the minimum per-capita cropland area is small,the pressure of grain production is low,the cropland productivity is high in the counties from the south of Baota District of Yan＇an city in terms of the special scale.The cropland pressure index and the minimum cropland area are going up from 1998 to 2003 while they are going down since 2003 in terms of the temporal scale.In the recent years,the cropland pressure index is a little greater than 1.The pressure of cropland area and the problem of grain supply have been resolved better and better.But the grain security problem still exists.Therefore,Yan＇an City should control its population size and improve its low and middle efficiency cropland as well as practice dryland farming technique application to stabilize the grain production.