且末绿洲适宜规模研究

Study on Suitable Scale of Qiemo Oasis

干旱区平原绿洲,应以水为中心确定绿洲规模,防止水资源不足情况下土地过度开发造成的荒漠化和沙漠化。应用基于生态水热平衡的适宜绿洲规模数学模型,对且末绿洲现状年的绿洲适宜发展规模进行了研究。结果表明:(1)且末绿洲稳定性指数为0.535 8,绿洲处于亚稳定状态,生态系统呈开始退化趋势,绿洲需要较高的投入才能保持稳定。(2)且末绿洲适宜规模为609.22～812.29km2,且末绿洲适宜耕地面积为92.66～123.55km2。通过资料可知,且末绿洲现有规模为992.16km2,超出适宜规模0.2～0.6倍;现有耕地面积为150.88km2,也超出了适宜耕地面积的0.2～0.6倍。从生态可持续角度出发,绿洲面积不宜再扩大。

Arid plain oasis scale should be identified in terms of the priority of the capacity of water supply,and desertification caused by over-exploitation of land under the situation of water shortages should be prevented in the oasis.The Qiemo oasis appropriate development scale was studied by using mathematical model for oasis scale based on ecological water and heat balance method.The main conclusion are as follows：（1）the stability index of Qiemo oasis is 0.535 8,so the oasis is in the second stable state,the ecological system starts to degenerate,so oasis requires a higher input to keep stable;（2）Qiemo oasis suitable scale is 609.22～812.29 km2,suitable cultivated area in Qiemo oasis is 92.66～123.55 km2.The existing scale of Qiemo oasis is 992.16 km2 which is beyond Qiemo oasis suitable scale 0.2～0.6 times.The existing cultivated area is 150.88 km2,which is also beyond suitable cultivated area 0.2～0.6 times.From the view of ecological sustainability,oasis area is unfavorable to expand.