对外贸易与能源消耗:基于中国面板数据的经验分析

Foreign Trade and Energy Consumption:Empirical Study Based on China's Panel Data

在同时纳入能耗、贸易、经济增长的框架下,应用面板协整和误差修正等检验中国能源消费与贸易开放之间的相互关系。短期动态格兰杰因果检验揭示中国出口与能耗、进口与能耗间均存在双向正向作用;长期均衡关系估计显示,中国人均实际出口和进口贸易每增长1%,分别带来人均能耗0.103%和0.09%的增加,人均能耗对人均实际出口和进口的长期弹性均约为0.5。可以认为,中国出口会增加能源消耗,进口并没有降低能源消耗,在目前的贸易模式下,节能减排会降低出口扩张的速度。因此,中国能源政策的制定应该与贸易政策相互协调,从而保证对外贸易的稳步增长和能源利用的可持续性。

In a model including energy consumption,international trade and economic growth,applying panel co-integration and error correction,the mutual relationship between energy consumption and trade openness is estimated.The short-term granger test proves the mutual causality,and long-term equilibrium analysis shows that 1% growth of export per capita and import per capita would bring about 0.103% and 0.09% growth of energy consumption per capita respectively,while the long-term elasticities of energy consumption to export and to import are about 0.5.Therefore,more export would increase the energy consumption while more import would not reduce it.The coordination of energy policy and trade policy is required so to achieve the development of trade and sustainability of energy use.